Should We Be Freaking Out About Snowpack?

Justin Smith
2 days ago
3 min read

2026 Snowpack Update for Idaho River Rafting

It has been warm.

Low elevation snow is thin. Ski resorts have struggled. It looks strange.

So the question we keep hearing is simple:

Should we be worried about summer rafting?

Short answer: No.

Let’s look at the data that actually matters.

The Only Drainage That Matters for Our Salmon River Trips

Our rafting trips near Riggins are fueled by one primary system:

The Salmon River Basin.

Right now the Salmon Basin is sitting at 88 percent of median.

That is close to a normal year.

But the more important story is in the southern headwaters.

Big Lost Basin is at 134 percent of median.

Little Lost Basin is at 117 percent.

Those southern high elevation mountain ranges hold the deepest snowpack and the highest water volume. If you understand the geology of the Salmon Basin, most of the sustained summer flow comes from this high country.

The lower elevation snow you see from town melts every year in April and early May. That melt does not carry July and August.

High elevation snow does.

And that snow is there.

We are tracking very close to a normal Salmon River year.

Snake River System Update

Zooming out to the broader Snake River system:

Upper Snake snowpack is at 98 percent of median.

Total system reservoir storage is around 61 percent and filling normally.

That is a standard Idaho runoff profile.

Hagerman

Hagerman flows are driven largely by hydropower demand. Expect normal, consistent releases.

Murtaugh

Murtaugh is shaping up to be a normal season as well. We anticipate flows near 2,500 CFS. Timing details will firm up as spring develops, but at this point the likelihood of extreme flood releases appears lower than in heavy snow years.

Yes, It Has Been Warm

Warm winters create visual panic.

When low elevation snow disappears early, it feels like something is wrong.

But low and mid elevation snow melts early most years. That is part of the normal hydrologic cycle.

The rivers that matter in summer are fed by high elevation snowpack.

And those basins are holding steady.

We are not seeing red flags for the Salmon River near Riggins.

We are seeing a normal Idaho year.

What Happens This Spring?

Of course, runoff ultimately depends on how the spring unfolds.

A rapid heat spike can accelerate melt.

A cool, gradual warming trend can stretch flows beautifully into summer.

At this point, nothing in the long term outlook appears out of the ordinary.

You can review the current Climate Prediction Center outlook here.

We will continue monitoring snowpack, temperature trends, and basin conditions as we move toward peak runoff.

Right now, nothing suggests an abnormal season.

August on the Salmon River Still Packs a Punch

Another common question:

“If I book in August, will there even be enough water?”

Yes!

August rafting still packs a punch on the Salmon River in Idaho. Bigger waves than you will anywhere in Idaho at this time. — Tight Squeeze Rapid near Riggins in August

Even in late summer, flows near Riggins typically hover around 3,000 CFS.

For perspective, that is more water than many commercial rafting rivers across the country see during their peak season.

This is not a trickle.

This is not scraping rocks.

August on the Salmon brings:

Warm water

Defined lines

Punchy, structured hits

Early season is big volume and long wave trains.

Late season is tighter, more technical, and still packs a fun punch. Rapids like Time Zone, Tight Squeeze, Traps, Fiddle, and Black Rock still deliver clean, powerful action well into summer.

The personality shifts.

The excitement remains.